RTÉ Racing: Racing industry saw growth in 2011

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Good news from Ireland on growth in the horse racing industry in 2011.

Bloodstock sales, Tote betting and racecourse attendances produced significant growth in 2011, according to figures issued by Horse Racing Ireland (HRI).

Racecourse attendances were up by 40,000 at 1.24 million compared to 1.20 million in 2010. The average attendance at race meetings in 2011 was 3,682, up 3% from 3,586.

Tote betting was €51.1 million, up 11.3% from €45.9 million, with most of the increase generated by international co-mingling deals.

RTÉ Racing: Racing industry saw growth in 2011.

Betfair to make some payments over voided bets

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Betfair had originally voided all “in-play” bets on a Leoprdstown race after an investigation found that a technical error had seen the winning horse, Voler La Vedette, matched at 29 to 1 when the betting market was suspended.

Now Betfair are reported to have agreed to make ex gratia payments to a number of their customers that were affected.

Read more here Betfair to make some payments over voided bets .

Precision by CX Wong

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I finally succumbed and bought a copy of CX Wong’s book “Precision: Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing” from Amazon.

The book is available both as a paper book or as an eBook for the Kindle. I opted for the Kindle version for two main reasons. The paper book book has an estimated delivery time of 1 – 4 weeks and it is about twice the price of the Kindle version. Of course, if you don’t own a Kindle it is possible to either download a Kindle app for your smartphone, or use Amazon’s browser based eBook reader for free.

I had seen Wong’s book for sale a number of weeks ago, but only decided to buy it after getting a recommendation from an economics professor based in Israel, who had already examined the book.I have only just started reading the book – but one good thing are the freely downloadable Excel spreadsheets that accompany the text. This book was originally written and published in Chinese, and the English translation is a bit quirky in its use of the language. However, I can understand how some of this has come about – and the issue is not greatly distracting. So far I am enjoying the book – and if anyone has any interest in further details about this book, I will post more information when I have finished reading it.

Taxman targets the king of punters Zeljko Ranogajec

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This story was run in The Australian newspaper a few days ago, just before Christmas. The Australian Tax Office (ATO) is to investigate Zeljko Ranogajec. Ranogajec is one of the worlds biggest and most reclusive punters and is reputed to bet over $1billion Australian dollars a year. He reportedly accounts for 6-8% of Australian bookmaker TabCorp’s $10 billion annual revenue

Taxman targets the king of punters Zeljko Ranogajec | The Australian.

London 2012: Dedicated police unit to target fixers and betting syndicates

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This news story is about the police attempting to crack-down on the activities of betting syndicates and attempts at fixing events. However, today’s sports betting, where betting on events within events takes place, introduces some novel challenges. How would you detect attempted rigging of events where the bets are placed on the number of short corners in a hockey match, for instance?

I would assume that statistical analysis of a good number of top flight sports events will be used to help detect unusual activity. If the number of short corners averages 4.92 with a standard deviation of 1.66 (or whatever the actual figures are) then a match that has 20 short corners would be highly unusual. Of course, detecting unusual activity doesn’t prove fraud is taking place – but it can be a helpful indication.

Read more on this story at: London 2012: Dedicated police unit to target fixers and betting syndicates | Metro.co.uk.

Betfair loses £40m on Leopardstown after ‘technical glitch’

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The Betfair saga continues to rumble on, with punters obviously unhappy at having their wagers cancelled – possibly because someone made a bad gamble. Betfair did put out an announcement to explain that it was due to technical problem – however this explanation has not satisfied those affected. Confidence in Betfair has been dented – will your winning bets be cancelled if someone else has made a bad gamble? Will you have to pay out if you lose? Could this be the end for Betfair?

Betfair loses £40m on Leopardstown after ‘technical glitch’ – Telegraph.

Betfair falls short in new attempt to end unease over voided bets

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Perhaps a cautionary tale on the use of bots on the Betfair exchange.

Although the full technical details of what happened do not seem to have been fully disclosed, the story does seem to suggest that a betting bot was able to place bets which created a liability that far exceeded the funds in the associated punter’s account. Whether this was due to some sort of would be fraudulent activity, or a previously unknown technical error, it not clear. However, if you are creating a bot to bet, relying on Betfair’s technology to keep your losses within limits might be a very dangerous strategy – and the bot should use a ‘belt and braces’ approach to ensure that your money is protected.

I see so much software written that seems to only have included error processing as an after thought. In some cases, safety and what happens when things go wrong, should be paramount and deserves to be properly considered and appropriate safety measures included.

Read more on this story at the Guardian: Betfair falls short in new attempt to end unease over voided bets | Sport | The Guardian.

When Will the Industry Finally Bet On Itself?

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An interesting article from HorseraceInsider commenting on the recent bans in the UK related to laying horses. Does the ability to lay horses on betting exchanges inevitably lead to “fixing” of races more than would be the case otherwise? Fixing of sporting events will go on, where there is money to be made and governing authorities need to make that they take appropriate measures to identify it and have the power to hand out suitable punishments.

Read the full article at HorseraceInsider:

“betting exchanges offer another way of cheating and that’s a fact – anyone can lay a horse to lose. But I think if [exchanges] didn’t exist there would still be people trying to cheat simply because there is money involved…

via When Will the Industry Finally Bet On Itself? | John Pricci Horse Racing Blog | Horse Racing.

WordPress Upgrade

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I have upgraded supavit.com to use Wordpress version 3.3. If you notice any problems with functionality or any other strange behaviour, then please let me know.

I used the automatic upgrade feature in Wordpress – and for some reason it kept failing after the download of the new version and unpacking the files. This was fixed by going to the webserver and deleting the ‘upgrade’ folder from the ‘wp-content’ folder and also deleted the several copies of the downloaded upgrade file. Following that, the upgrade proceeded quite smoothly.

Before doing the upgrade, I also deactivated all plug-ins, and then reactivated them after the upgrade.

One feature which I am hoping will work better, is the ability to add tags to posts. Until now I have had some problems with this – so many of the posts have been left untagged so far. I’ll try to spend some time in the next few days sorting this out – as being able to find articles based on the tags is very useful.

One final thing occupying my mind, is making sure that I get hold of a copy of The Weekender this week. I usually buy it at the weekend – but being Christmas this week-end may make that rather difficult!

Merry Christmas to all.

Nick Mordin in The Weekender

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Nick Mordin has written a number of books on horse racing (e.g. Betting for a Living; Mordin on Time) and has a regular column in The Weekender, which I buy every week. Nick is held in very high regard on the racing circuit, any book and his thinking on horse racing, speed figures, tracks and punting are a must for any racing enthusiast.

Reading Nick Mordin’s column in The Weekender, he makes some very valid points about hard facts being in short supply in horse racing – particularly in Britain and Ireland. Facts that are taken for granted in other countries such as the USA, include sectional times, horse’s body weights and medical records, full details of the the equipment they carry and official gallop reports. Even some of the so-called facts that are available to UK punters can be wildly inaccurate. Official race distances can be out by 50 yards or more.

Gathering real hard facts takes some effort but can lead to profit. In this week’s column Nick’s observations about horses that sweat in the their early starts would appear to be profitable – returning £28.31 to a level £1 stake.